I’m not a weather forecaster, but I do spend an enormous amount of time studying weather models and making predictions–especially this time of year. I’m an optimist, so whenever I see moisture in the models I automatically assume it will fall as snow at Crystal. I used to be able to get away with this. But the GFS models are getting better, and I no longer have that luxury.
Case in point. Here’s a look at the 24 hour GFSx model. The first one shows the Precipitation amounts and the second one shows the temperature. These models are courtesy of the University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences page. For a look at all the models, click the link above.
Notice the green and blue blob over Western Washington, moving towards the mountains. That’s quite a bit of water showing up in the next 24 hours.
Now take a look at the next model. This is the 850 millibar model, showing predicted temperatures in the next 24 hours. The 850 millibar pressure level roughly equates to 5,000 ft. As a Washington skier, you are looking for the freezing temps in the Cascades. Light yellow is 0 Celsius at 5,000 ft, about Crystal’s mid-mountain elevation.
So based on this prediction, the moisture shown in the first picture will fall as rain at Crystal. Perhaps the upper slopes will receive a dusting of white, but this isn’t going to be the storm that gets us open.
Too bad, because I’m ready.
So instead of offering any great news about our future, I’ll just leave you with a teaser from last season. It’s just around the corner. I can feel it.